[free-sklyarov] Re: URGENT: factioning...

[8?]

I only see half a game tree here. What about these outcomes (noted by -)

> >
> > Consider the following scenarios:
> > 1) Adobe calls of the negotiations because there are protestors outside
> >    + EFF can rightfully howl and bitch about this, and very effectively
> >      milk it in the press.  You don't have to understand the DMCA to
> >      understand the freedom of the people peacably to assemble on public
> >      property outside the Adobe offices, and if Adobe bails because of that
> >      they're going to look very bad ("We will brook no criticism
> >      whatsoever").

         - Adobe can howl and bitch very effectively in the press how they 
are trying but we aren't. Since none of the sheep understand the DMCA, they 
view protesters as troublemakers, and are glad the government is protecting 
them from these evil 'hackers'. Maybe now they can feel safe on AOL.


> > 2) Adobe meets with EFF, smiles, nods, and doesn't do a damn thing.
> >    + EFF can milk this in the press too.  The members of the mailing list
> >      can holler to all available news forums about Adobe's cynical 
> attempt to
> >      manipulate the protestors, and if EFF does end up in meetings with
> >      Adobe again -- which will only happen when they are in a positon of
> >      greater strength than now, they can use Adobe's previous 
> negotiations in
> >      bad faith as a weapon against them.

         - Once again, adobe is only having this meeting so THEY can 
spin/milk the press. EFF is going to hand them a hammer and let themselves 
get beat in the head with it. I believe that adobe has already built up 
plenty of bad faith, but that doesn't seem to matter, does it? Mistrust of 
your adversary is hardly a weapon.

> > 3) Adobe makes some token gesture which doesn't actually do anything to
> >    benefit Dmitry.
> >    + The most likely scenario and the most difficult to defend against.
> >      But that's all right, inevitably we're going to have to protest the
> >      federal government to get Dmity freed.  If the protests go forward
> >      anyway, Adobe still gets their black eye and other U.S. companies get
> >      a message.

        - I'm sure this will happen, no matter what the outcome of monday's 
meeting is (although I will expand the scope; it won't benefit anyone). I 
don't see how this will hurt adobe though, as they get the police action 
they (and corp. america) want. I do agree though, that US companies will 
get the message, TIME TO DONATE MORE MONEY TO PACS!

> > 4) Adobe withdraws its complaint and calls for Dmitry's release and vows
> >    non-cooperation with the FBI, making the case more difficult to
> >    prosecute (remember, discovery hasn't taken place yet, and Adobe has the
> >    resources to resist with some effectiveness, and the DoJ has
> >    lower-hanging fruit to pick).
> >    + The most unlikely scenario, and as much of a victory as could possibly
> >      be expected from Adbobe, aside from a denunciation of the DMCA itself,
> >      so unlikely that I really don't see any point in speculating on it.
> >

         - I would consider this the hell hath frozen scenario, so I won't 
speculate further myself.

> > --
> > G. Branden Robinson                |      "To be is to do"   -- Plato
>
>We mostly agree on the shape of the game tree.  I think the probability of
>branch 4 is not tiny.
>
>oo--JS.

I agree, tiny is much too large, infinitesimal is more appropriate.