[free-sklyarov] BSA, DMCA statement on indictment

[Karsten M. Self]

on Sun, Sep 02, 2001 at 06:28:22PM -0700, Robert A. Knop Jr. (rknop at pobox.com) wrote:
> > The Business Software Alliance's members include bascially every major 
> > technology player. 
> > 
> > http://www.bsa.org/usa/press/newsreleases//2001-08-30.692.phtml
> 
> Here's my favorite quote:
> 
>    Law enforcement actions are critical to the BSA's anti-piracy
>    efforts, which resulted in over $11 billion in loses to the
>    industry last year alone.
> 
> Well, heck, if the BSA's anit-piracy efforts are so costly, they should be
> stopped RIGHT NOW! :)

A long-lived outright lie, thoroughly repudiated for years, I might add,
in an essay I wrote:

    http://kmself.home.netcom.com/Rants/piracy.html
    On Software "Piracy", Lies, BSA, Microsoft, Rocks, and Hard Penguins

    <...>

    Impacts on ISVs

    Piracy does have a negative impact on legitimate software revenues.
    The amount cited by the SPA as "losses due to piracy" is mislabeled,
    it is really the wholesale value of pirated software (units of
    pirated software times wholesale price).

    The actual loss is the difference between what revenues would have
    been without piracy and actual revenues with piracy. Determining the
    price and unit sales in the absence of piracy requires a more
    rigorous economic analysis than is used in the SPA case. The amount
    is far, far less than the numbers reported by SPA.  I've been
    looking for, but have been unable to find any rigorous economic
    analysis suggesting the what the actual amounts might be in
    different markets.

    It's possible to get some idea of how far off these are simply by
    backing out SPA's numbers, taking the piracy rate to represent a
    fraction of total wholesale unit sales. Taking a few of the markets
    described, 1998 SPA report:

    (billions of US dollars)

	Market Whsl Value Pirate Sw Piracy Rate Legitimate Sales
	                                        (my estimate)
	US     $2.8                 27%         $7.6
	China  $1.4                 96%         $0.06
	Japan  $0.8                 32%         $1.7
	Korea  $0.6                 67%         $0.3
	Brazil $0.4                 62%         $0.3
	UK     $0.3                 31%         $0.7

    China is of particular interest. Though piracy "losses" of $1.4
    billion are claimed, ACTUAL software sales were only $60 million. I
    find it impossible to believe that any significant fraction of the
    claimed billion plus dollars in "losses" would have been realized in
    actual sales, in the absence of piracy.

    Put another way, the US per capita legitimate software purchase for
    1997 was $27. For China, it was $0.05.

I point this essay to reporters and authors whenever I see misstatements
of piracy impacts stated.  Moreover, the fact is that in order to
promote marketshare, SW publishers have tacitly (and sometimes actively)
supported unauthorized distribution of proprietary software.

EFF/Free Sklyarov efforts are free to use, reference, and distribute
this essay with attribution.

Cheers.

-- 
Karsten M. Self <kmself at ix.netcom.com>          http://kmself.home.netcom.com/
 What part of "Gestalt" don't you understand?             There is no K5 cabal
  http://gestalt-system.sourceforge.net/               http://www.kuro5hin.org
   Free Dmitry! Boycott Adobe! Repeal the DMCA!    http://www.freesklyarov.org
Geek for Hire                        http://kmself.home.netcom.com/resume.html
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